Can company tax (value added tax, VAT) turnover returns be used to provide an early indicator of gross domestic product (GDP) growth?
- Louisa Nolan
- Gareth Clews
- Steven Hopkins
- Bernard Peat
- Cerys Hopkins
- Ben Aspey
- Rhydian Page
- Caitlin Johnson
- Tom Smith
- What are we trying to improve? Following the financial downturn in 2008/09 a need was identified for a means of predicting behaviour of economic measures at an earlier point than the official cestimates
- How might this be useful? This indicator may provide advance warning of large change in behaviour of GDP.
- What is the impact in terms of public good? This project can allow a more immediate understanding of and reaction to changes in the economy.
- This is to be shared with Office for National Statistics (ONS) National Accounts via delivery of the codebase used in the prototype and a blog will be written for publication on the Campus website.
- Who is using it? This indicator is not currently in use. It may be used by ONS once a full suite of indicators is developed as a separate project.
- What’s new, innovative, shiny, difficult, interesting about this? Use of administrative data sources to predict behaviours of official statistics.
- What is the data science stack ? Python.
- Who are the Partners / stakeholders?
- HM Treasury
- Who are we working with?
Code and outputs
- What are the outputs?
- Repository is not currently public
Related and existing work
- Links to related research, other groups (inside + outside gov)
- May 2018 Project delivered to National Accounts
- October 2018 Blog publication
Please contact firstname.lastname@example.org for more information.
- No updates yet.